Politics & Government

Romney's VP Choice Limits Christie's Options, Shapes Governor's Race

Focus of New Jersey politicians shifts immediately to Christie's 2013 reelection campaign

By Mark Magyar, NJ Spotlight

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s decision to choose Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate limits Christie’s options for a future presidential run and immediately shifts the focus in New Jersey to Christie’s 2013 gubernatorial reelection campaign.

Privately, Republican Party leaders in New Jersey were relieved by Ryan’s selection, knowing that Christie’s consistently high poll ratings make him a solid favorite for reelection, while any other GOP candidate would automatically start out as a 10-point underdog. With Democrats firmly in control of both houses of the Legislature, Democratic recapture of the governorship would make the GOP in New Jersey virtually irrelevant.

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Meanwhile, Democrats weighing a race for the governorship next year have to plan for the likelihood that they will be going head to head with Christie. And while Christie has not yet announced his plans for 2013, the New York Post reported that he refused to promise the Romney campaign that he would resign the governorship in order to run for vice president -- which undercuts the theory that Christie has been eyeing a move to Fox as a commentator to boost a potential 2016 race if Romney loses.

Some Democrats are still hoping that Christie will become U.S. Attorney General if Romney wins. But Christie has repeatedly said he’s “nobody’s No. 2,” and U.S. Attorney General isn’t much of a platform for an ambitious politician aiming to run for president; Robert Kennedy is the only former attorney general to make a high-profile run for president in modern history, and he had the Kennedy name and was serving as U.S. senator from New York when he ran. Besides, Christie has said repeatedly that he loves being New Jersey governor and that his job is not yet finished.

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Christie is still in the running to deliver the keynote address at the Republican National Convention -- the same prime-time showcase that Barack Obama seized upon in 2004 to propel him to the Democratic presidential nomination and to the White House four years later. But while he will continue to campaign nationwide for the Romney-Ryan ticket, he will no longer command the headlines or the talk shows the way he did until after the November election is decided -- and then only if Romney loses.

The Young Christie

Christie, at 49, is still young, and he admitted last month he is thinking about whether to run for president as early as 2016 -- a startling statement considering that a 2016 race would only be a possibility if Romney loses. However, a Romney victory would sharply limit Christie’s future options. If Romney wins in November, he would be seeking reelection in 2016, and if he has a successful two terms, his vice president, Paul Ryan, would be young enough at 50 to expect to run in 2020 -- as George H.W. Bush did in 1988 and Al Gore did in 2000. Thus, a successful Romney presidency could preclude a Christie presidential candidacy for a dozen years -- a lifetime in presidential politics.

Romney’s selection of Ryan is important not only because it represents his embrace of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, but also because it puts Ryan’s plan to restructure the federal budget and reduce the deficit at the center of his campaign and presumably his administration. In fact, Romney has essentially decided to run on the fiscal policies set out by Ryan and the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives -- a wing of the party that is committed not to raise taxes for any reason, including reducing the budget.

Christie issued a brief two-sentence statement praising the Ryan pick: "With Paul Ryan on the ticket, this is a team that understands the economic stagnation our country has been facing the last four years and the urgency with which we need to change course. The Romney-Ryan team is uniquely positioned to make the tough choices necessary to confront our fiscal challenges and get results."

However, Christie also said in a speech to the Brookings Institution last month that one of Obama’s biggest leadership failures was his refusal to immediately embrace and fight for the bipartisan deficit reduction plan put forth by the commission headed by former U.S. Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY) and Democratic budget expert Chester Bowles -- one that included not only cuts in Medicare, Social Security, and other entitlement programs, but also a series of tax increases to help pay down the deficit.

Christie is clearly the most conservative governor in modern New Jersey history, and his loud YouTube confrontations and his tell-it-like-it-is Jersey style have made him a darling of grass roots Republicans and national commentators.

But the idea that Simpson-Bowles deserved consideration as a bipartisan compromise -- and the need for compromise, which has been one of Christie’s favorite themes in his speeches to public policy think tanks -- places Christie ideologically as a moderate in the national Republican Party.

Some right-wing blogs have been grousing about Christie’s nomination to a New Jersey Superior court judgeship of a Muslim whose family ties to radical Islamic groups they questioned. And it’s unclear how Christie’s nomination of an openly gay African-American Republican to the New Jersey Supreme Court would have played in the faith-based communities of evangelicals and Catholics who consider homosexuality a sin.

While Christie’s name has been prominent in discussions of potential vice presidential nominees since his decision last fall to endorse Romney and not to run for president himself, he was always considered to be a bold choice and something of a long shot for the cautious Romney.


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